Bitcoin (BTC) traders gear up for volatility as crypto heads into the US Federal Reserve interest-rate decision.
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Bitcoin bulls have a clear resistance level to overcome at $117,000 as the week gets underway.
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All eyes are on the Fed as markets unanimously expect the first interest-rate cut of 2025 to come on Wednesday.
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A historically accurate BTC price forecasting tool demands fresh all-time highs for Bitcoin within weeks.
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Binance order-book data hints that large buyers were active over the weekend.
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Institutional demand was nine times the mined BTC supply last week, with the trend seen pushing price higher.
Bitcoin price starts moving as TradFi returns
Bitcoin price volatility is hotting up as TradFi markets return, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveals.
BTC/USD continues to see rejection at $117,000, making the level a point of interest for traders.
Knocking on the door of $117,000 now. We need to get over that to continue this next leg up pic.twitter.com/58YifZnkLE
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) September 15, 2025
“$BTC got rejected from the $117,00-$117,200 region. This is the only key level to reclaim for Bitcoin now,” crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows told followers in his latest post on X.
“If BTC fails to reclaim this soon, the chances of a correction towards $113,500 or lower will go up.”
Data from CoinGlass shows a large block of ask liquidity on exchange order-books immediately above the $117,000 mark, with price eating into bids below.
Fellow trader CrypNuevo suggested that $113,000 may come back into play around the time of Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve interest-rate decision.
“I think it could drop max to $113k-$112k this week,” part of an X thread released Sunday stated.
Fed rate-cut talk dominates
This week should see the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in 2025.
Markets anticipate that Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will yield a rate cut of 0.25%. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool even sees a slight chance of a larger 0.5% cut.
The circumstances around the move are unusual. As noted by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, there have only been three years since 1996 in which the Fed has cut rates with stocks near all-time highs.
What happens as a result should please risk-asset bulls — including Bitcoin hodlers.
“There will be more immediate-term volatility, but long-term asset owners will party. Why do we think that? Because interest rate cuts are coming into rising inflation and the AI Revolution, only adding fuel to the fire,” it wrote in an X thread on Sept. 13.
“Gold and Bitcoin have known this. The straight-line higher price action we have seen in these asset classes is pricing-in what’s coming.”
As Cointelegraph reported, the Fed faces a balancing act of hot inflation markers and deteriorating labor-market conditions, and is expected to quote the latter as a basis for the rate cuts.
“While inflation remains a problem for the Fed, the central bank’s focus has clearly shifted toward supporting the labor market,” trading firm Mosaic Asset Company summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
Mosaic referenced recent downward job data revisions, noting the market “pricing several rate cuts ahead.”
“There’s a 100% chance the Fed will reduce rates when it meets this week…the only question is by how much,” it stressed.
“Either way, a new rate cutting cycle is set to begin at a time when financial conditions are already loose and the stock market is signaling a positive growth outlook.”
Bitcoin bull market top may be “just weeks away”
Predicting the top for the current Bitcoin bull market is an increasingly heated topic among market participants.
Some believe that $124,500 will remain intact until next cycle, while many others are preparing for a final trip into price discovery.
$BTC 1W
Bull divs still exist on 1W. Wouldn’t be surprised if we got a quick retest of 112k before slightly higher.
Again I’m not anticipating a new ATH or continuation of the bull run, this is one bull div amongst many bearish factors including increasing profit taking. pic.twitter.com/bXNSCtp78x
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) September 15, 2025
At the weekend, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal, tapped his historically accurate BTC price forecasting tool as proof.
The Max Intersect SMA model, which employs simple moving averages (SMAs) and algorithmic analysis to pinpoint bull market tops, has not yet flashed for this cycle, he reported.
“Max Intersect SMA Model hasn’t signaled this cycle’s top yet, but it’s getting very close,” an X post explained, with Wedson arguing that the top may be “just weeks away.”
Accompanying charts put the top target at around $140,000.
As Cointelegraph reported, comparing previous bull markets to the current one has led to expectations that the top will not come before October.
A golden cross on the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator at the start of September, meanwhile, delivered a bold $160,000 target over the coming month, again based on historical patterns.
Binance shows signs of large-volume buying
Largest crypto exchange Binance is hinting at a BTC supply squeeze in a potential boost for bulls.
The latest research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant concludes that a large buyer may have been active on Binance this weekend. Contributor Arab Chain flagged the Binance Scarcity Index tool as proof.
“The index jumps when immediate buying power exceeds available supply, as if buyers are racing to acquire Bitcoin on the market,” it wrote in one of CryptoQuant’s “Quicktake” blog posts.
“This type of spike is often linked to positive news or sudden capital inflows. The same pattern occurred last June and persisted for several days, after which Bitcoin climbed to around $124,000.”
Arab Chain acknowledged that short-term spikes in the index conversely precede periods of consolidatory price action. The current uptick, it said, needs to last several days.
“The scarcity index has seen a sharp rise in recent months, reaching all-time highs (above +6) before quickly declining toward neutral and even negative territory,” it observed.
The index reached 2.94 on Sunday, per CryptoQuant data.
ETFs wipe out newly-mined BTC
When it comes to large BTC buys, all eyes are on institutions going forward as crypto exchange-traded products see large inflows.
Related: Bitcoin miner accumulation hits fastest pace since 2023 rally
As Cointelegraph reported, the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) achieved net inflows of $2.3 billion last week.
This led Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, to suggest that the scale of institutional interest will ultimately lead Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
“Why? Because there is simply too much institutional demand, and that demand is growing,” he explained at the weekend.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted that on Sept. 10 alone, the ETFs’ 5,900 BTC inflows represented their largest single-day tally since mid-July.
“This pushed weekly net flows positive, reflecting renewed ETF demand as BTC consolidates above the $114k level,” it observed.
A common argument revolves around institutional buys outweighing the amount of newly minted coins added to the BTC supply by miners.
Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, calculated last week’s inflows as being nearly nine times the newly-mined supply.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.