Key takeaways:
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XRP’s rally to $3 has pushed 94% of supply into profit, a level that historically marked macro tops.
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XRP is in the “belief–denial” zone, onchain metrics show, echoing peaks in 2017 and 2021.
XRP’s (XRP) rally to over $3 has pushed nearly 94% of its circulating supply into profit, Glassnode data shows.
As of Sunday, XRP’s percent supply in profit was 93.92%, underscoring strong investor gains as the cryptocurrency rallied by more than 500% in the past nine months to $3.11 from under $0.40.
90%> supply in profit is usually an XRP macro top
Such high profitability has historically signaled overheated conditions.
In early 2018, over 90% of holders were in profit just as XRP peaked near $3.30 before a 95% price reversal. A similar setup appeared in April 2021, when profitability levels above 90% preceded an 85% crash from the top near $1.95.
The broad profitability underscores strong investor gains, which typically heightens the risk of distribution as traders may seek to realize profits. A similar scenario could be unfolding now.
XRP’s NUPL mirros 2017 and 2021 price peaks
XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is further signaling top risks.
The indicator, which tracks the difference between unrealized gains and losses across the network, has entered the “belief–denial” zone, a phase historically observed before or during market tops.
For example, in late 2017, XRP’s NUPL spiked to similar levels just as XRP price peaked above $3.30. A comparable pattern unfolded in April 2021, when NUPL readings above 0.5 coincided with XRP’s top near $1.95 before another sharp downturn.
The current trajectory suggests investors are heavily in profit but not yet in full “euphoria.” But the risk of profit-taking and distribution will intensify if NUPL rises toward greed levels for the first time since 2018.
XRP might absorb potential selling pressure and avoid a deeper correction below $3 if it can attract fresh inflows, driven by institutional demand and broader altcoin momentum.
XRP’s classic bearish setup risks 20% drop
XRP price is consolidating inside a descending triangle after rising above $3.
The pattern, typically bearish, is defined by lower highs against horizontal support near $3.05. Earlier this month, XRP briefly broke below the support in a fakeout, only to rebound back inside the structure.
The pressure from repeated retests of the lower trendline raises the risk of a decisive breakdown. A confirmed move below $3.05 could trigger a sell-off toward $2.39 by September, down about 23.50% from current price levels.
Related: Is $30 XRP price a real possibility for this bull cycle?
On the other hand, the bulls must break above the descending resistance line to regain upside momentum and invalidate the bearish setup. Many believe that the XRP price could rise to $6 in this scenario.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.