Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin must take out resistance at $120,000 to trigger a rally to new all-time highs.
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Spot volume and trading activity must recover for BTC price to break out.
Bitcoin’s rally to its all-time highs near $123,000 appears to be cooling off, but traders believe BTC remains on track with “massive pump incoming” toward higher targets in 2025.
Several analysts explain what must happen to increase Bitcoin’s potential to break into price discovery in the following days or weeks.
Bitcoin must crack $120,000 resistance
Bitcoin (BTC) price has been oscillating between $120,000 and $115,000, where it has found support, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Bitcoin’s bullish case hinges on its BTC price flipping the resistance between $119,000 and $120,500 into support.
Related: Bitcoin nears $120K as analysis predicts ‘larger price swings’ next
This week’s goal is for Bitcoin to “break above $120,500 with strength and volume,” said private wealth manager Swissblock in a Monday post on X.
The firm explained that the price is consolidating in a descending triangle — a classic continuation pattern — which suggests that it is “just cooling off, not breaking down.”
“Bulls are still in control,” Swissblock added.
Fellow analyst Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin bulls needed to turn the weekly close at $119,200 into support through a retest to “confirm breakout.”
Bitcoin did it
Bitcoin Weekly Closed above the ~$119200 Bull Flag Top and is now in the process of retesting it to fully confirm the breakout
Downside wicking is possible on this retest, as long as the Bull Flag Top is maintained as support$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/CQxKKQwLXp pic.twitter.com/RqD6erpEi0
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 28, 2025
As Cointelegraph reported, the bulls were targeting to break the $120,000-$123,000 resistance zone, with their eyes set on the next target at $130,000.
New BTC buyers must step in
Bitcoin’s ability to push above $120,000 appears limited due to the absence of buyers.
Bitcoin’s spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) metric, an indicator that measures the net difference between buying and selling trade volumes, reveals that net spot buying on exchanges remains negative.
However, this metric has improved from -$243.3 million to -$111.3 million, “reflecting a significant reduction in sell-side dominance and growing buy-side interest,” Glassnode said in its latest Weekly Market Impulse report.
“This shift likely signals renewed accumulation behaviour as investors step in to buy the dip after the recent price correction, suggesting a more constructive sentiment.”
If the buying continues, it could add to the demand-side pressure needed to push Bitcoin out of consolidation.
Additionally, spot trading volume has declined to $8.6 billion from $9.2 billion over the last week, further underscoring the lack of speculative intensity.
While not a significant drop, the decline points to “reduced investor activity,” Glassnode explained, adding:
“This moderation in volume suggests that participants might be in a wait-and-see mode with lower conviction to buy or sell aggressively.”
An uptick in spot volume would align with a broader accumulation phase, triggering a strong rally.
Bitcoin must validate a falling wedge breakout
Bitcoin technicals show that the price has broken out of a falling wedge pattern on the four-hour candle chart.
A falling wedge is a bullish chart pattern with converging trendlines sloping downward, indicating decreasing selling pressure. It often signals a potential price breakout to the upside.
“Bitcoin has broken out of this falling wedge pattern,” Mister Crypto said in a Tuesday X post, adding:
“Massive pump incoming.”
To confirm the breakout, the BTC/USD pair was required to retest the upper boundary of the wedge around $118,300 (where the 50-period and 100-period SMAs converge) and flip it into support.
According to trader Crypto Boss, this retest has already occurred, setting the stage for a rally to new all-time highs.
“$BTC breakout and retest done. Send it to new ATHs now.”
$BTC breakout and retest done. Send it to new ATH now pic.twitter.com/YzShMlf7GH
— CryptoBoss (@CryptoBoss1984) July 29, 2025
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.