Key takeaways:
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Institutional flows are growing, but retail interest and App Store rankings remain unusually low.
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A weakening US dollar or major ETF adoption could push the crypto market cap well above its previous highs.
Traders are always anxiously awaiting the start of a crypto super cycle, which is a deviation from the traditional four-year cycle of gains following each Bitcoin (BTC) halving.
Since 2021, a number of analysts have suggested a new paradigm in which the crypto market would soar 400% beyond its previous highs. Take, for example, X user CryptoKaleo, who recently posted about the “real” super cycle.
Even if the assumptions shared by X user CryptoKaleo prove accurate, it is still far too early to conclude that the market has entered a crypto super cycle. The current total capitalization of $3.4 trillion is just 29% above the $2.65 trillion peak recorded in November 2021.
So far, that projection remains unfulfilled, but there are certain factors to look for that would confirm the start of a super cycle.
US Dollar weakness, Crypto ETF growth and Strategic Bitcoin Reserves
One such catalyst would be the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropping below 95, a level last seen in November 2021. Continued weakness in the dollar against other major fiat currencies would signal growing investor discomfort with the US fiscal situation. In that case, a portion of the $24.7 trillion in US Treasurys held by the public could flow into alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Another major potential driver is the rapid expansion of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry. Despite recent momentum, the current $190 billion in crypto-related assets under management is still negligible compared to traditional asset classes. For comparison, the three largest S&P 500 ETFs alone control a combined $2 trillion in assets.
Despite initial enthusiasm, the US government’s strategic Bitcoin reserve plan remains vague. Should the Trump administration accumulate at least 200,000 BTC, that could significantly shift market sentiment. A similar effect might come from corporate treasury allocations by tech giants like Google, Apple, or Microsoft.
Retail investor interest and sector-themed hype
Retail investor participation also plays a critical role in triggering a supercycle. Search volumes for terms like “buy Bitcoin” and “buy crypto” have remained flat for five months and sit well below their November 2024 highs. Likewise, the Coinbase and Robinhood apps have slipped in US App Store rankings over the past three months.
While institutional capital has taken the lead in this cycle, retail-driven FOMO still serves as the fuel for parabolic growth. Another key signal would be a resurgence in altcoin sector narratives—whether driven by AI tokens, casino coins, or traditional meme tokens featuring cats and dogs.
Currently, the memecoin market capitalization is $68.5 billion, down from the all-time high of $140.5 billion reached in December 2024, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Related: Bitcoin supply is shrinking: Will Saylor’s relentless BTC buying cause a supply shock?
These scenarios remain speculative and hinge on unpredictable macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, including the US Federal Reserve’s ability to avoid a recession and the evolution of global trade relations.
However, the closer the market gets to meeting these conditions, the more likely a surge past $13.2 trillion in market capitalization becomes, representing a 400% increase over the November 2021 peak.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.