Bitcoin (BTC) starts the last week of August far from all-time highs as traders become increasingly nervous.
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A huge long liquidation event has brought $110,000 back into play as a new CME gap becomes a new hope for bulls.
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Bitcoin whales are under scrutiny after a giant rotation from BTC into ETH.
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Smaller hodlers remain in accumulation mode, analysis reveals, unlike whales.
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The latest BTC price action has resulted in talk of the entire bull market now being over.
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The Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge is due again as markets double down on rate-cut bets.
BTC price weakness sparks talk of $100,000 retest
Bitcoin is back at multi-week lows as August nears its end — and market participants are busy drawing new BTC price targets.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows whipsaw BTC price action defining the market since Sunday’s flash volatility.
This took BTC/USD to $10,700 — its lowest levels since July 10 and a rude wake-up call for late longs.
Monitoring resource CoinGlass put 24-hour crypto long liquidations at $640 million at the time of writing.
Traders were split on the short-term outlook. While some eyed a retest of old all-time highs as a bounce point, others saw a more nuanced situation.
$110,000 target on this dip is near close. I would like to see this hit and then consolidate for the next run up pic.twitter.com/k1d8E0Qxmg
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) August 25, 2025
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades flagged an “important retest” currently in progress.
“$BTC Opened up with a large CME gap today,” he noted, referring to the weekend gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market.
“This is the largest we’ve seen in several weeks. We have been opening up with gaps pretty often and most of these have been filling on Monday/Tuesday.”
Fellow trader Jelle was among those seeing a trip to even lower levels.
“Bitcoin is still murdering leveraged traders around the range lows, and from the looks of it, the sharks are still hungry,” he warned.
“Would really prefer price holds this area, or we’ll fall back into the previous range which would open us up to another retest of $100k.”
CoinGlass exchange order-book data reveals little bid support in place immediately below price into the week’s first Wall Street open.
Last week, Cointelegraph reported on conviction over $100,000 staying in place — even unchallenged — as support.
Bitcoin OG: Whale distribution “healthy”
Sunday’s sudden BTC price dive has brought Bitcoin whales back into focus.
Current levels, still within 10% of all-time highs, have proven attractive to large players seeking to take profit on long-held coins.
The weekend saw one entity sell a giant tranche of BTC after seven years, tanking the market $4,000 in minutes — a drop from which it has yet to recover.
Data from crypto intelligence firm Arkham uploaded to X by analytics account Lookonchain shows the entity rotating from Bitcoin into Ether.
“In the past 5 days, they’ve deposited ~22,769 $BTC($2.59B) to Hyperliquid for sale, then bought 472,920 $ETH($2.22B) spot and opened a 135,265 $ETH($577M) long,” it summarized while relaying the BTC and ETH addresses involved.
The entity’s BTC is now worth around $11.4 billion — a profit margin of 1,675%.
“No paper BTC conspiracies are required. The price has stalled because a number of whales have hit their magic number and are unloading,” Bitcoin enthusiast Vijay Boyapati commented on the event.
“This is healthy – their supply is finite and their selling is required for the full monetization of Bitcoin. Massive blocks of supply, with enormous purchasing power, are being distributed into the population. This cycle is one of the greatest monetization events in history.”
Statistician Willy Woo, who made headlines last month for his own BTC sales, underscored the sway that the oldest whales still have on market dynamics.
“Why is BTC moving up so slowly this cycle?” he queried alongside a chart.
“BTC supply is concentrated around OG whales who peaked their holdings in 2011 (orange and dark orange). They bought their BTC at $10 or lower. It takes $110k+ of new capital to absorb each BTC they sell.”
As Cointelegraph reported, whale distribution has been evident throughout the latest phase of the bull run.
Data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that as of Sunday, there were 2,000 addresses with a balance of between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC — corresponding to all but the largest “mega” whales. This marked a new August high.
Smaller Bitcoin hodlers continue accumulating
Looking into other wallet cohorts, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant sees reasons for bulls to stay hopeful about a rebound.
Distribution, it warned Monday, is not yet in full swing across the Bitcoin investor spectrum.
“After reaching its ATH at 124K, Bitcoin has entered a pullback phase,” contributor BorisD summarized in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts, predicting that the retracement may “continue for a while.”
Unlike whales, smaller hodler classes have retained an overall “accumulation” mindset. Specifically, wallets holding up to 10 BTC continue to add exposure.
Conversely, those between 10 and 100 BTC display distribution behavior, having shifted to profit-taking en masse as the price hit $118,000.
Between 100 and 1,000 BTC, market influence gains significance, BorisD says.
“While generally in accumulation mode, they have shown balance between accumulation and distribution since 105K, reflecting indecision,” he commented.
“This level acts as a critical support-turning zone.”
Thanks to the relative size of the wallets involved, CryptoQuant describes distribution as now being “dominant.”
“Distribution is still the dominant trend, but its intensity is weakening as Bitcoin pulls back,” the post concludes.
“The 105K level stands out as the strongest zone. A move down to this region would create significant stress in the market and could trigger widespread fear.”
Is the bull market “over” already?
For some market participants, there is little reason to expect a full-on return of the Bitcoin bull market.
Those already harboring conservative views of future price action have doubled down on their outlook as BTC/USD falls to its lowest levels since early July.
Among them is popular trader Roman, whose latest analysis warned that high-timeframe signals suggest that the best of the bull run has come and gone.
As evidence, he cited a head and shoulders reversal pattern playing out, with the final third “shoulder” element still to come.
“All we need is the reversal pattern setup to potentially take shorts. They’ll get caught on the low volume pump once again,” he forecast.
“The $BTC bull run is over.”
$BTC 1D
The Head & shoulders reversal AKA the bull killer.
HTF is bearish. All we need is the reversal pattern setup to potentially take shorts.
They’ll get caught on the low volume pump once again. The $BTC bull run is over. pic.twitter.com/Q3rAet5YiP
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) August 25, 2025
Before that, Roman and others had flagged declining volume and weakening relative strength index (RSI) data to support the thesis that Bitcoin had run out of steam. As price made new highs, RSI made lower highs — a classic bearish divergence setup.
Late last week, citing Wyckoff analysis, fellow trading account ZAYK Charts put the potential downside target for BTC/USD at $95,000.
“$BTC still moving exactly as Wyckoff predicted,” it wrote in an update.
US inflation battle lurks in the background
The Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge is due for release at a critical time for economic policy.
Related: ETH ‘god candle,’ $6K next? Coinbase tightens security: Hodler’s Digest, Aug. 17 – 23
The July print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, due Friday, will be of key importance to both Fed officials and markets seeking confirmation of interest-rate cuts next month.
Last week, at its annual Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a surprise pivot on his previously hawkish stance. Risk assets immediately surged as hopes of a rate cut gained momentum.
Since then, the mood has cooled, with plenty of inflation data still to come before the rate decision in mid-September.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts market odds of a 0.25% cut at nearly 90%.
Commenting, trading firm Mosaic Asset emphasized Powell’s language and the Fed’s changing approach to its 2% inflation target.
“If abandoning average inflation targeting means the Fed is becoming less tolerant of inflation above the 2% target, then you wouldn’t expect a dovish tone out of the Fed,” it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“That will make upcoming inflation and payrolls reports ahead of September’s rate-setting meeting crucial datapoints for the Fed.”
Mosaic said that betting on multiple rate cuts might be “misplaced” as a strategy going forward.
Elsewhere, Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings could inject volatility into crypto and risk assets, with a strong performance expected.
“Nvidia is set to close out an overall strong earnings season with attention shifting to the Fed,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.