As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates near the $119,000 mark following a new all-time high (ATH) above $123,000 last week, several on-chain indicators are presenting a mixed picture regarding the cryptocurrency’s next major move.
Bitcoin On-Chain Data Shows Mixed Outlook
According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Chairman Lee, BTC exchange reserves have risen noticeably since late June. This sharp uptick suggests increased profit-taking activity, which could weigh on BTC in the short-term.
Large holders and miners have also been ramping up their deposits since July 18. However, overall inflows to centralized exchanges remain relatively low compared to the levels observed during major market tops earlier this year.
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Meanwhile, the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) count continues to decline – a trend often interpreted as a sign of long-term accumulation. Investors appear to be consolidating their coins, reducing active transactions and indicating strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
For context, a declining UTXO count typically reflects reduced short-term selling pressure as holders move BTC into fewer wallets rather than trading them. This behavior is commonly associated with an overall bullish market outlook.
Chairman Lee also pointed out that institutional and exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows remain robust. Year-to-date (YTD), nearly $50 billion has flowed into Bitcoin investment products despite temporary pauses due to profit-taking.
Data from SoSoValue shows that US-listed spot BTC ETFs have recorded four consecutive months of positive inflows, with more than $18 billion added since April 2025. Similarly, total net assets held by these ETFs now exceed $151.6 billion.
Can BTC Still Eye $180,000 Target?
From a technical standpoint, Chairman Lee highlighted the $116,400 area as the immediate support zone. The analyst remarked:
A breakdown below this level could extend the correction toward $112K–$110K. On the upside, holding above $116K keeps the structure intact for another push toward $124K–$130K.
The analyst emphasized that as long as Bitcoin defends the $110,000 level, the broader bullish trend will remain intact. Moreover, if ETF and institutional inflows gain further momentum, BTC could still reach the ambitious year-end target of $180,000.
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That said, some cautionary signs are beginning to emerge. On-chain data indicates that long-term holders are accelerating distribution, while short-term investors are entering the market in hopes of benefitting from further upside – behavior that has historically preceded local tops.
On the contrary, the Bitcoin short-term holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) suggests that there may still be room for further growth in BTC’s price. At press time, BTC trades at $119,241, up 0.9% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com